Opinion polls have pointed to radical populist AMLO sweeping to power in 2018, adding risks to businesses, but the political fall-out from the recent earthquakes could scupper his chances.
Archive of: Security
The surge in nationalist fervour and amplified doubts over NAFTA is a dream-come-true for Andrés Manuel López Obrador, but the presence of an external enemy can lead a populist to morph into a radical.
The blocking of the referendum process will exacerbate tensions inside the military, where some officers and troops have also favoured a recall.
Fears that the rejection of the FARC accord will tip the country back into civil war are overblown. But it is equally farfetched to think that peace will trigger an economic boom.
Security challenges for businesses are likely to morph from ‘classic’ conflict-zone type risks into hazards more prevalent in high criminality environments, such as those in Mexico and Venezuela.
Public perceptions of the prevalence of security risks in Mexico are improving, but at a slower pace than the underlying trend of a longer-term improvement in the real incidence of crime shown by statistics.
Colombia’s main insurgent group, the FARC, has agreed a landmark pact to help clear anti-personnel mines and IEDs seeded across the country, but the process is at best likely to be slow.